Автор Тема: САЩ и Европа  (Прочетена 57181 пъти)

Jim

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Re: САЩ и Европа
« Отговор #30 -: 21 Ноември, 2010, 00:10:24 »
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Трише поиска ново управление на ЕС

Президентът на Европейската централна банка (ЕЦБ) ....................

Очаквам поевтиняване на еврото.  :P
Благодаря за последното изречение, кратко и ясно. Предполагам, че имаш предвид спрямо долара. Обаче предишния ти пост започва с цитат на Морган: "Доларът ще стане най-слабата валута в света". И малко се обърквам. Асен преди време беше писал положително за Китай и юана, ама дали да си купуваме юани, откъде, какво да ги правим...Нас като европейци ни интересува основно евро/долар.

antoninus_pius

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Re: САЩ и Европа
« Отговор #31 -: 21 Ноември, 2010, 22:17:26 »
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Трише поиска ново управление на ЕС

Президентът на Европейската централна банка (ЕЦБ) ....................

Очаквам поевтиняване на еврото.  :P
Благодаря за последното изречение, кратко и ясно. Предполагам, че имаш предвид спрямо долара. Обаче предишния ти пост започва с цитат на Морган: "Доларът ще стане най-слабата валута в света". И малко се обърквам. Асен преди време беше писал положително за Китай и юана, ама дали да си купуваме юани, откъде, какво да ги правим...Нас като европейци ни интересува основно евро/долар.

Визирам основно спрямо ценните метали. Иначе и цената на долара и на еврото ще пада - някои ги беше оприличил на две падащи листа - ту едното пада по-бързо, ту другото, но в крайна сметка и двете се обезценяват. Спрямо доларът - очаквам леко поскъпване на последният в следващите 5-10 дни... Докато не се почне с новини за ударно печатане на щатска валута  ;).

Muza

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Re: САЩ и Европа
« Отговор #32 -: 21 Ноември, 2010, 23:07:32 »
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Визирам основно спрямо ценните метали. Иначе и цената на долара и на еврото ще пада - някои ги беше оприличил на две падащи листа - ту едното пада по-бързо, ту другото, но в крайна сметка и двете се обезценяват.


Спрямо кое ще се обезценяват и двете ? Само спрямо ценните метали ли?  *drink9*

antoninus_pius

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Re: САЩ и Европа
« Отговор #33 -: 22 Ноември, 2010, 08:38:27 »
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Визирам основно спрямо ценните метали. Иначе и цената на долара и на еврото ще пада - някои ги беше оприличил на две падащи листа - ту едното пада по-бързо, ту другото, но в крайна сметка и двете се обезценяват.



Спрямо кое ще се обезценяват и двете ? Само спрямо ценните метали ли?  *drink9*


Основно спрямо ценните метали ще поевтинеят, спрямо commodities също е възможно.
А иначе докато цената на златото/среброто се вдига, респект. златото и еврото ще поевтиняват спрямо тях. В този си процес на едната валута ще му пада покупателната способност по-бързо, после обратното ще става. Т.е. ще може със $1000 или Е1000 да се купува много по-малко (ценни метали и commodities). На пръв поглед изглежда, че едната валута дната валута поскъпва... Но само на пръв поглед. Напр. доларът взе да "поскъпва", после ще дойде ред на еврото (1 спрямо друга). Наистина цената на златото падна доста (виж: http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.html); но в дългосрочен процес цената върви нагоре към момента.
Дали греша или съм прав - времето ще покаже.  *drink9*

gogolcho

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Re: САЩ и Европа
« Отговор #34 -: 22 Ноември, 2010, 09:26:36 »
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Ирландия се пречупи, поиска помощ от МВФ
http://www.investor.bg/news/article/108669/334.html

antoninus_pius

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Re: САЩ и Европа
« Отговор #35 -: 22 Ноември, 2010, 12:26:21 »
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The Dollar Destroyers  http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/68569.html

Доста добро клипче относно положението с долара.

Jim

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Re: САЩ и Европа
« Отговор #36 -: 22 Ноември, 2010, 23:00:17 »
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Основно спрямо ценните метали ще поевтинеят, спрямо commodities също е възможно.
А иначе докато цената на златото/среброто се вдига, респект. златото и еврото ще поевтиняват спрямо тях. В този си процес на едната валута ще му пада покупателната способност по-бързо, после обратното ще става. Т.е. ще може със $1000 или Е1000 да се купува много по-малко (ценни метали и commodities). ......
Това всичкото не се ли казва инфлация? И ако е много висока, в какво (стоки, злато, сребро, имоти) да си спасим парите? Аз съм противник на ценните метали - даваш пари, не ти носят никакви приходи, чудиш се къде да ги съхраняваш и продаването е много трудно и с голям марж. Имоти също твърдо не, абсурд е да гонят инфлацията. Стоки, може, но какви? И при тези ниски лихви в УСА и ЕС наистина ли очакваш сериозна инфлация? Питам, не противореча. През 1990 г. бързо си ликвидирах левовете (купих долари, стоки), защото бях видял в Полша какво става и как парите стават хартийки...

Muza

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Re: САЩ и Европа
« Отговор #37 -: 22 Ноември, 2010, 23:31:34 »
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Аз малко не съм съгласна, че с обезценяването на евро/$ спрямо ценните метали, се обезценяват валутите като цяло.

Видно е за всички, че в момента се надува балон при тях. Бях пейстнала в друга тема, до болка познатата класическа обосновка за балон - UP, UP, UP... 400%...

Това все още не означава, че ще има хиперинфлация в евро/$. За да има, трябва да има девалвация на евро, на $, спрямо друга валута. Нали си спомняте 97'. Печатаха се пари, имаше инфлация, имаше и девалвация на лева, спрямо долара.

Ако, наистина се развие като балон, то според мен, няма начин да не се отрази на потреблението, в посока свиване. Ще има търсене на злато, вместо да се харчат парите за друго. Това, по-скоро ще подхрани дефлацията. Не ми се вярва, че ще го оставят дълго време този балон.

Съвсем не казвам, че няма да се случи девалвация. Но едновременно и при двете валути? Спрямо коя друга валута?

Швейцарският франк, например? Какво ви е мнението?

antoninus_pius

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Re: САЩ и Европа
« Отговор #38 -: 23 Ноември, 2010, 19:52:31 »
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Основно спрямо ценните метали ще поевтинеят, спрямо commodities също е възможно.
А иначе докато цената на златото/среброто се вдига, респект. златото и еврото ще поевтиняват спрямо тях. В този си процес на едната валута ще му пада покупателната способност по-бързо, после обратното ще става. Т.е. ще може със $1000 или Е1000 да се купува много по-малко (ценни метали и commodities). ......

Това всичкото не се ли казва инфлация? И ако е много висока, в какво (стоки, злато, сребро, имоти) да си спасим парите? Аз съм противник на ценните метали - даваш пари, не ти носят никакви приходи, чудиш се къде да ги съхраняваш и продаването е много трудно и с голям марж. Имоти също твърдо не, абсурд е да гонят инфлацията. Стоки, може, но какви? И при тези ниски лихви в УСА и ЕС наистина ли очакваш сериозна инфлация? Питам, не противореча. През 1990 г. бързо си ликвидирах левовете (купих долари, стоки), защото бях видял в Полша какво става и как парите стават хартийки...

Jim, аз инвестиционни съвети не давам (писал съм неведнъж), само споделям вижданията си. Лично аз очаквам балониоране на златото и ценните метали и до 2012 не бих се учудил и на $2500. А дали 1 тройунция злато ще е $2500 или 250 - един бог знае. А, жена ми пресметна, че ако продадем тазгодишно закупеното злато (с маржа) ще имаме също толкова пари, и ако си държим парите на депозит. Т.е. ако златото стане $1450 ще съм на по-голяма файда, отколкото ако държа парите на депозит. Може би, ако инвестираш в хранително-вкусовата промишленост ще постигнеш по-висока възвръщаемост (в криза се търси основно храна и стоки от първа необходимост). Ама в какво и как да инвестираш???

Аз малко не съм съгласна, че с обезценяването на евро/$ спрямо ценните метали, се обезценяват валутите като цяло.

Видно е за всички, че в момента се надува балон при тях. Бях пейстнала в друга тема, до болка познатата класическа обосновка за балон - UP, UP, UP... 400%...

Това все още не означава, че ще има хиперинфлация в евро/$. За да има, трябва да има девалвация на евро, на $, спрямо друга валута. Нали си спомняте 97'. Печатаха се пари, имаше инфлация, имаше и девалвация на лева, спрямо долара.

Ако, наистина се развие като балон, то според мен, няма начин да не се отрази на потреблението, в посока свиване. Ще има търсене на злато, вместо да се харчат парите за друго. Това, по-скоро ще подхрани дефлацията. Не ми се вярва, че ще го оставят дълго време този балон.

Съвсем не казвам, че няма да се случи девалвация. Но едновременно и при двете валути? Спрямо коя друга валута?

Швейцарският франк, например? Какво ви е мнението?


Муза,
лично аз с интерес чета твоите мнения. Обаче си мисля, че винаги нещо може да стане за първи път и вече е изпуснат духа от бутилката.
Напълно е възможно някоя нова валута да замести във времето долара - МВФ май се опитват да му намалят тежестта в СПТ (специални права за тираж) за сметка на еврото - възможно е в бъдеще същата съдба да сполети и еврото успоредно с долара. А дали такива новини ще окажат влияние на курса на долара/еврото?

Нещо ново от днес - Nassim Taleb looks at what will break, and what won't - http://www.economist.com/node/17509373?story_id=17509373&CFID=149238396&CFTOKEN=89583226  :P

Paradoxically, one can make long-term predictions on the basis of the prevalence of forecasting errors. A system that is over-reliant on prediction (through leverage, like the banking system before the recent crisis), hence fragile to unforeseen “black swan” events, will eventually break into pieces. Although fragile bridges can take a long time to collapse, 25 years in the 21st century should be sufficient to make hidden risks salient: connectivity and operational leverage are making cultural and economic events cascade faster and deeper. Anything fragile today will be broken by then.

The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive, weakened by deficits, politicians’ misalignment of interests and the magnification of errors by centralised systems. The pre-modernist robust model of city-states and statelings will prevail, with obsessive fiscal prudence. Currencies might still exist, but, after the disastrous experience of America’s Federal Reserve, they will peg to some currency without a government, such as gold.

Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange (hence “efficient”) and paying bonuses will be gone. Those that will survive will be the more black swan-resistant—smaller, family-owned, unlisted on exchanges and free of debt. There will be large companies then, but these will be new—and short-lived.


Most of the technologies that are now 25 years old or more will be around; almost all of the younger ones “providing efficiencies” will be gone, either supplanted by competing ones or progressively replaced by the more robust archaic ones. So the car, the plane, the bicycle, the voice-only telephone, the espresso machine and, luckily, the wall-to-wall bookshelf will still be with us.

The world will face severe biological and electronic pandemics, another gift from globalisation.

Religious practice will experience a revival, seen as a conveyor of robust heuristics, cultural values and rituals. Science will produce smaller and smaller gains in the non-linear domain, in spite of the enormous resources it will consume; instead it will start focusing on what it cannot—and should not—do. Finally, what is now called academic economics will be treated with the same disrespect that rigorous (and practical) minds currently have for Derrida-style post-modernist verbiage.
« Последна редакция: 23 Ноември, 2010, 20:07:29 от antoninus_pius »

Muza

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Re: САЩ и Европа
« Отговор #39 -: 27 Ноември, 2010, 00:41:59 »
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Загубите на банките.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE67P14S20100826


antoninus_pius

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Re: САЩ и Европа
« Отговор #40 -: 29 Ноември, 2010, 20:22:13 »
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EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/8160999/EU-rescue-costs-start-to-threaten-Germany-itself.html

Явно повече се скапват нещата в ЕС. Аз си мислех, че САЩ ще си го отнесат, но там ще спасяват страната с мерките н Дянков. Само за 10 часа доларът поскъпна спрямо еврото с повече от 12 цента (24 стотинки). http://finance.dir.bg/currency/details.php?id=2&id_base_curr=0&time=1D

Пита се в задачата как ще го изкараме този процес ние - Начев май отговори в 1 друга статия.
« Последна редакция: 29 Ноември, 2010, 20:26:32 от antoninus_pius »

Muza

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Re: САЩ и Европа
« Отговор #41 -: 30 Ноември, 2010, 23:09:21 »
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Euro Debt Crisis Bankruptcy Bailout Queue, Protect Savings & Deposits From Banks Going Bankrupt!


By: Nadeem_Walayat



Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe global banking system that publicly went bankrupt during September 2008 prompting government interventions in the form of capital injections, buying of toxic assets, insurance of bad debts and even outright nationalisation's has started to bankrupt the states that bailed them out, starting with the smaller states with Iceland setting the ball rolling, and this year the bailiffs came knocking on the doors of the Eurozone club members, with first Greece, and now Ireland requiring a Euro-zone bailout (German) to prevent debt default bankruptcy, where if one falls then soon would all of the dominos tumble.

The Euro 200 billion bailout out of Greece and Ireland is in the form of a series of loans set at a 5% interest rate, against which one can measure the relative credit risks in the market as theoretically 5% should be seen as a cap with the view that market rates should be below the 5% bailout rate. However the bond markets are NOT responding positively to Ireland's bailout as they had done during May's Greece bailout, which is evidenced by the yields on 10 year euro-zone sovereign bonds rising across the board:

Greece's 10 year yield continues to trade at a high 12% despite the Euro 110 billion bailout at 5%, because Greek bond holders continue to discount a highly probable eventual debt default / restructuring as a deflating economy has sent public debt to GDP soaring to 135%.

Ireland's yield has surged higher to stand at 9.2%, following Monday's bailout low of 8%, again suggesting debt restructuring given depression inducing public debt at 95% of GDP.

Portugal's yield has crept higher to a new credit crisis high of 7.1% from Mondays low of 6.7%, confirming that a bailout of Portugal at an estimated Euro 40-80 billion is imminent for an uncompetitive economy carrying a rising debt to GDP ratio at 83%.

Spain's yield has now crossed above the 5% bailout rate to 5.2%, which suggests that the market is pricing in a bailout for Spain, which is not surprising given the exposure of Spanish banks to Portuguese debts, official debt is put at 64% of GDP but this does not fully take into accounts Spanish banks bad debts that as with Ireland could easily send Spain's debt to GDP to well over 100%.

Italy's yield has trended higher to 4.42% putting Italy firmly in the queue for a debt crisis blowout given that public debt is already at 120% of GDP.

Belgium's yield rose to 3.7%, which illustrates an elevated risk as a consequence of the failure of the political parties to form a new government and public debt is already at 100% of GDP.

UK - Whilst not part of the eurozone has seen its 10 year yields continue to trend higher to 3.3%, marginally below the recent high of 3.4%. The lower UK yield despite Britains huge debt mountain illustrates the flexibility afforded by being OUTSIDE the euro-zone as it allows Britain to continue to stealth default on its debts by means of printing money induced high inflation that the Eurozone countries cannot do individually I.e. the UK government prints money that it loans to the bankrupt banks at 0.5% to buy UK government bonds at 3.3%, hence why the yields are lower than the likes of Spain and Italy, which acts as a safety valve preventing outright bankruptcy but the price paid is in high inflation, with the doctored official inflation measure of CPI is at 3.2%, the more recognised RPI at 4.5% and real inflation at 6% as the following graph illustrates.



The CPI inflation trend is inline with forecast expectations as of December 2009 (27th December 2009 (UK CPI Inflation Forecast 2010, Imminent and Sustained Spike Above 3%)

France's yield at 3.14 illustrates that France still retains some room for manoeuvre despite being in the Euro-zone.

Germany, the primary funder of the Euro-zone bailouts and also the benchmark for where the Euro-zone debt collectively used to trade, saw its 10 year bund yields rise a little to 2.7%.

The Debt Interest Spiral



Virtually all countries continue to run huge budget deficits well above the 3% limit / targets that ensure the total debts will continue to grow which means if the economies fail to grow GDP faster then they accumulate debt, then Debt as a percentage of GDP will grow even faster thus triggering an out of control debt interest spiral as warned off in December 2009 (03 Dec 2009 - Britain's Inflationary Debt Spiral as Bank of England Keeps Expanding Quantitative Easing ).

The problem for the bankrupting PIIGS remains is that they cannot inflate their way out of debt, therefore economic austerity resulting in contracting economies means an ever higher debt burden which means that ALL of the bailed out countries will require further bailouts down the road as their debt mountains continue to grow. Thus ultimately the bailouts are just delaying the inevitable debt defaults / restructuring.

Again I have to reiterate - DEBT DEFAULT IS INEVITABLE, with Greece and Ireland now at the top of the Debt Default List. With the first in the queue to experience default being bond investors that have loaned monies to the bankrupt banks. Clearly the Euro-zone is attempting to delay inevitable debt default until the Euro-zone financial system has repaired itself enough to withstand a Greece and Ireland default.

The Euro-Zone Bankruptcy Queue

My original analysis of the countries at the highest risk of going bankrupt of March and April 2010 (13 Apr 2010 - Britain's Accelerating Trend Towards High Inflation and UK Debt Default Bankruptcy ) warned that a far bigger problem was brewing in Ireland that would blow up over the coming months during which period the mainstream press has been focused on Greece. If it were not for the E.U. bailout than Ireland and Greece would have gone the way of Iceland i.e. bankrupt.



However as the graph illustrates the risk of bankruptcy does not stop with Ireland and Greece, as whilst the mainstream press has finally woken up to Portugal being next, however they still are asleep to the third country on my list of countries most likely to go bankrupt, requiring a bailout namely Belgium, which in fact at the time I rated as being a head of Portugal.

The current state of the trends towards bankruptcy taking the earlier bond yields analysis into account suggests that the situation for Portugal, Spain and Italy has deteriorated since my original analysis of March 2010, and improved for the UK and to a lesser extent for Belgium, therefore I would now rank the bankruptcy order as :

Greece - Bust requiring bailed Euro 110 bailout

Ireland - Bust requiring Euro 85 billion Bailed out

Portugal - Pending an imminent bailout of approx Euro 40-80 billion

Belgium - Pending bailout of approx Euro 50 billion.

Spain - Pending bailout of approx Euro 400 to 500 billion.

Italy - Pending bailout approx Euro 1 trillion+.

According to May's bailout of Greece, the total funds made available to bailout the Euro-zone members was put at Euro 750 billion. Therefore after Portugal, there would just not be enough to bailout Spain that could reach as high as Euro 500 billion, which is why the Chancellor Angela Merkel made the statement on Nov 25th, warning bond investors that they should prepare themselves for a haircut as debt is restructured (partial default).

“Do politicians have the courage to place the risk burden on those who make money? Or is trading in sovereign debt the only business in the world in which there is no need to take risk?” and “This is about the primacy of politics, this is about the limits of the markets.”

Off course the Eurozone could do what the U.S., Japan and UK are doing which is to say to hell with it, we are just going to keep printing money and monetizing government debt forever! Though the German memories of the 1920's hyperinflation and subsequent collapse of the German state into a long depression that gave rise to the Third Reich is strong enough to suggest that after Portugal, a bailout of Spain and others will be accompanied by increasingly heavy losses for bond investors and highly likely bank depositors which would therefore impact everyone regardless of where they reside.

BREAKING NEWS INSERT - The most recent breaking news coming out of Germany is for a doubling of the Euro 750 billion bailout fund to Euro 1.5 trillion, which is clearly to address the increasing speculation around the fact that the balance of the existing fund would not be enough to bailout Spain, which as earlier analysis shows has tipped into the bailout zone during recent days.

UK Savers Need to Plan Ahead For a Banks Going Bankrupt

My focus from this point forward will be on the risks of UK's bankrupt banks bankrupting Britain, whilst the risk is relatively low at about 17%, however there is the contagion factor where a cascade of bankrupting Eurozone countries that UK banks are exposed to such as Spain, Italy or even France would bring Britain down with them. Especially as Britain would NOT survive a collapse of the Euro-zone which many UK Euro-skeptic politicians gleefully look forward to without contemplating the consequence in terms of the accompanying collapse of economic activity that would make the Great Recession of 2008-2009 look like a picnic.

However the UK going bankrupt would not mean that the government would default on its debts, instead it would seek to inflate them away at a far faster pace than it already is with real inflation reaching in the region of 20% per annum, which given recent trends in inflation implies a CPI of about 10% as the earlier inflation graph illustrates. However a bankrupting state would mean savers would not only lose the value of their savings as inflation erodes it by as much as 20% per annum. But that the government would seek to restructure bank debt which means bond holders would take a hit and in a worse case scenario the government would be forced into nationalisation and restructuring the whole banking sector which means that savers could lose deposits over the FSA limit of £50,000 per banking group.

Whilst the worst case scenario at this point in time is not on the horizon, however that does not mean that savers would be fully protected if a country such as Spain goes bust where a bailout would require it's banks be restructured including loss of depositor cash upto a certain limit as occurred following Iceland's bankruptcy. In such an eventuality given the size of UK depositor funds with the likes of Spain's Santandar, the government may be forced to only cover UK depositors upto the FSA limits.

Santandar and other foreign banks have been allowed to run amok amidst Britain's retail banking sector as a consequence of an incompetent regulator and a desperate government eager for anyone to take on the responsibility of restructuring a string of bankrupt banks which allowed Santandar to gobble up a string of UK small to medium sized banks which now poses a real risk to UK depositors.

The only way people can protect themselves against a risk of bankruptcy triggering the FSA limit protections is by ensuring that deposits per banking GROUP are under the FSCA compensation limits which are currently £50,000, and from 1st of January 2011 will rise to Euro 100,000 or about £83,000.

However savers with amounts deposited above the guaranteed limits need to ensure that they have measures in place well ahead of a banking crisis to ensure that they survive one both in terms of the ability to transact business as well as ensuring total funds exposed are LESS than the banking limits at the time of a bank run.

Scare Mongering ?

Am I scare mongering? Try asking those that were locked out of their savings accounts when the Icelandic banks went bust during October 2008. The banks froze UK customers out of their accounts on the 7th of October 2008. My analysis of 2nd October 2008 had warned that small countries such as Iceland were at risk of going bankrupt, with Iceland's bankruptcy preceded by some 24 hours earlier by Iceland Going Bankrupt?, - "savers should at the first opportunity seek to repatriate their savings to a 100% UK bank as the consequences of a country going bankrupt could render guarantees meaningless".

Still think I am scare mongering ?

Did you know that funds deposited by some 2 million UK depositors with the Post Office are not guaranteed by the UK FSCS ? Which are in fact guaranteed by the Irish government. This illustrates why savers need to be aware of the risks and make appropriate contingency plans for when the SHTF. Now for some good news for Post Office savers, the Bank of Ireland (operates Post Office accounts) is in the process of transferring its Post Office depositor base to fully fall under the UK regulator and compensation scheme as per a statement of 1st November 2010, with more clarification pending.

However UK savers HAVE been blindly thinking for the past 2 years that their savings were safe in the British Post Office, when all along they were no more secure than in any other Irish bank so could have just as easily woken up to a shock Iceland style.

UK Savers Emergency Plan:

a. Ensure that you have at least 2 current accounts across banking groups.

b. That you have procedures in place to ensure that you can act fast to initiate transfer of funds from instant access savings accounts, especially if your total funds with a particular banking group exceeds £50k / £83k (1st Jan 2011).The best strategy is to limit exposure per banking group to the limit.

c. Do not have ANY savings are fixed deposit exposure to banks that do not fall under the UK Financials Services Compensation Scheme.

d. Limit exposure to PIIGS banks, that is Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy as these are at the most risk of going bust thus triggering a lengthy process of Savers having to wait for compensation.

The following list represents Britians' largest deposit taking banking groups and the banks that fall under each.


Note whilst banking groups may have multiple licences as a consequence of mergers and takeovers, however they also may be in the process of merging licences so for ultimate safety one should remain focused on banking groups.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24572.html#comment96840

От изворите на  *rashko* :)

Muza

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Re: САЩ и Европа
« Отговор #42 -: 30 Ноември, 2010, 23:31:17 »
0

John Davy
26 Nov 10, 23:02    Euor Vs USD

Hi Nadeem

Thank you for your very informative posts, the most realistic pictures among all the army of biased analysts.

If the USD will fall the Euro must rise. But in a situation as one described above in Europe (debt defaults / restructuring etc) how could this happen? Wouldnt the USD keep strengthning beyond USDX 80 / 90 and adversly affect equities?

Is my thinking right?

Please respond..

Regards

John

Не се чудим само ние.  :D :D :D

Muza

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Re: САЩ и Европа
« Отговор #43 -: 02 Декември, 2010, 20:50:20 »
0

http://m.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/1201/breaking26.html?via=bbreaking

Yesterday, European Central Bank (ECB) chief Jean-Claude Trichet tried to damp down mounting turmoil in the euro zone, saying he knows of nothing that would threaten the stability of the single currency in a fundamental way.

Mr Trichet told MEPs that the situation was “very, very difficult” as markets endured yet another rocky day, but said the determination of the EU authorities to overcome the crisis should not be dismissed.

Reflecting global concerns about the euro zone crisis, the US Treasury announced late yesterday that it would dispatch Undersecretary for International Affairs Lael Brainard to Europe this week to discuss the turmoil.

Ms Brainard will visit Madrid, Berlin and Paris to discuss "economic developments in Europe" and the "shared agenda on strong and sustainable growth", the Treasury said.

G20 sources said deputy finance ministers from the group of major rich and developing nations had discussed the financial situation in Europe on Monday in a previously arranged conference call, although they described the call as routine.






http://www.eurointelligence.com/index.php?id=581&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=2971&tx_ttnews[backPid]=901&cHash=9c4118578f

Only Trichet can save us now – ECB about to monetise peripheral debt

 We find it very strange that the EU finds the idea of a common bond too radical, but seems to have no qualms at all about monetising trillions of banking debt and peripheral eurozone sovereign debt. With his hint that more ECB bond buying was under way, financial markets rallied, and analyst expressed expection that the ECB would sanction a €1000bn to €2000bn bond purchasing programme. Put in context, the bond purchase so far were a mere €60bn, fully sterilised.

 Extremely overwhelmed politicians were very quick to jump on the bandwagon. According to Reuters, Barroso said he had “confidence in the European Central Bank and was sure it would take whatever action is needed to protect euro zone stability.” And Olli Rehn said the ECB was key to stability. They are saying that the politicians have run out of ammo. Only a broad-based monetisation of debt can help.

 

(In our view there are insurmountable problems with this thesis. The first is that it does not resolve the problem. The financial markets are panicking despite the setup of the EFSF. So they are not concern about liquidity, but about solvency. The ECB’s bond purchasing programme will almost certainly be geared towards the reduction of interest rates, but it will not be so large as too change the fundamental solvency concerns for the eurozone periphery. The second problem is that a large purchasing programme of the kind demanded by analysis is almost certainly a breach of European law, and German constitutional law.)

 
Irish banks most exposed to euro periphery

This is an interesting story showing the extreme degree of connected of the European financial sector, and one of the reasons why contagion is spreading so fast. The FT has news from the Bank of International Settlements, according to which Irish banks are extremely exposed to borrowers in Greece, Spain and Portugal, as a result of which the contagion of the crisis to those crisis is reverberating back to Ireland. Irish banks are also the fifth largest global lender in Italy. One German bank, Depfa, an Irish-based subsidiary of HRE, accounts for much for the lending that goes on between Germany, Ireland, Italy, and Spain.

 
Portugal angry at Commission’s recommendation to reduce dismissal costs

The European Commission chose a great moment to suggest Portugal changes in dismissal laws and a substantial reduction in redundancy payments, Jornal de Negocios reports. The Portuguese prime minister Jose Socrates reacted angrily, saying that the Portuguese government does not need suggestions from anyone. Labour market reforms will be on the policy agenda but only after the Budget 2011 debate. And the focus will be on employability rather than dismissal, in dialogue with trade unions and employers.

The FT’s solution set for the crisis

The FT looks at five scenarios of how the crisis could develop.

 1.       Monetisation. It is interesting that people see this as a solution, as this still does not answer the question the markets are most concerned about – the solvency of the European periphery. A big bond purchasing programme would ease the pressure, but would not make any solvent, who is not solvent now.

2.       Increasing the size of the EFSF. Ditto. More bailouts.

3.       A single bond

4.       A fiscal  union

5.       Break-up

 The scenarios are not of the same category. A single bond in a sense constitutes the core of fiscal union, so the two points are essential one. And it would be a structural solution to the Eurozone crisis, while the two first would be liquidity measures that would postpone the need for action – and ensure that the crisis will continue for much longer. But this is still the framework we are dealing with here. We think the EU will settle for a combination of 1 and 2, which will calm markets for a while, until the next growth numbers come in, which will show that everybody has been far too optimistic.

 
Bonds and Forex

 Getting better, except Greece.

 10-year sovereign spreads (against 10 year German bunds)

 

 ..................Previous Day / Close Yesterday’s / Close This morning

France 0.550 / 0.528 / 0.523

Italy    2.066 / 1.879 / 1.860

Spain 2.971 / 2.627 / 2.590

Portugal 4.500 / 4.108 / 4.108

Greece 9.461 / 9.341 / 9.80

Ireland 7.026 / 6.666 / 6.525

Belgium 1.434 / 1.308 / 1.264

 
Euro bilateral exchange rates:

 ..............€ at last Briefing / This morning

Dollar +1.3040 / +1.3095

Yen +108.93 / +110.10

Pound +0.8374 / +0.8393

Swiss Franc +1.3087 / +1.3160

 
Issing says German bondholder plan right in principle, but unworkable

Otmar Issing writes a thundering comment in the FT, in which he supports the principles of Germany’s bondholder bail-in proposal, but criticises the agreement itself. "Which authority will judge that the debt position of a country is unsustainable and that a process of restructuring has to be started? Such a regime would lack credibility and predictability. It would be based on discretionary decisions and set the stage for future political tension, uncertainty and volatility,"

 Barry Eichengreen is very, very angry

This is a piece from Handelsblatt, via the Irish economy blog. In it, Barry Eichengreen says that he is the most pro-euro economist in the US, but he is losing his patience with the utterly incompetent handling of the issue in European capitals. He said the Irish rescue package is a disaster. It has not solved a single issue. The interest rate will cripple Ireland. He compared the situation with Versailles.

“But European officials are scared to death not just by their banks but by their publics, who don’t want to hear that public money is required for bank recapitalization. It’s safer, in their view, to kick the can down the road in the hope that something good will turn up – to rely on ‘the luck of the Irish’.”



P.S. Нещо, не можах да излъжа втория линк. С копи/пейст може да се види.  *drink9*

 


Дядо Мечо

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Re: САЩ и Европа
« Отговор #44 -: 04 Декември, 2010, 12:34:59 »
0
Абе имам една голяма молба към всички.
Ако може, като цитирате нещо на друг език, даваите кратко резюме и на български.
Щото моя англииски например е колкото да почна сбиване в някоя кръчма.
Предварително благодаря.
  *drink1*