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http://pair.offshore.ai/38yearcycle/#hyperinflationHow to prepare if high inflation is coming
"A prudent person foresees danger and takes precautions. The simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. " - Proverbs 22:3.
This information is education in nature and, therefore, is not intended to constitute investment advice and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to purchase, sell or hold a particular security. Prior to making any investment decision, the services of an appropriate professional should be sought as investment related recommendations are dependent upon the personal situation of each individual investor.
But if things play out the way it looks to me, then doing some of the following ahead of time might ease the pain:
1. If you have a variable rate mortgage in US dollars you should switch to fixed rate ASAP. As inflation hits and interest rates go up, the odds are overwhelming that variable rate mortgage payments will go up faster than salaries. You don't want to have that risk.
2. More than 10% of the people with mortgages in America owe 25% more than their house is currently worth. If you have a fixed rate mortgage and are "upside down" in your home equity, it may still be sensible not to walk away. As the dollar drops so does the real value of your mortgage. If the dollar drops to 1/2 the current value, it is sort of like 1/2 of your mortgage just went away. Over the next decades dollars could drop more than this. So you could easily make enough on the mortgage to make up for lots of negative home equity now. The other way to look at it is that as inflation drives up rents your fixed monthly mortgage could well be less than rent after a few years.
3. Invest in silver and gold. If the world loses faith in paper money there will be a huge demand for silver and gold. Even without a general failing of paper money, silver and gold should do very well as the dollar goes down. To paraphrase Mogambo, when the idiots both at the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve are panicking and pushing the big red buttons marked "Print Another Trillion" you don't need to do any math, just own gold.
4. In the 30s and 70s gold stocks did well and they might again. However, there is a big risk that government puts a special tax on mining companies like Australia did. In particular if gold and silver prices go up and they can say those companies have "excess profits".
5. Investing outside the USA. You want a country that respects Rule of Law so your investment won't be arbitrarily messed with. Company values should be rising in countries trending toward free markets and falling in ones moving toward more government (as in USA). The more a country's central banks is artificially holding down interest rates, the more it discourages savings and encourages risky investments, which leads to bubbles and busts. In a free market the majority of the population should just save their money, not gamble.
6. Stock up on essentials. For example, food.
7. Solar panels for electricity. Your energy costs become pre-paid, so current rates don't impact you.
8. Electric car. If you have solar you can charge it up. Gas prices don't trouble you.
9. It might be good to switch jobs to, or start a side business in, some field that will be in demand during hard times. If you are in a field that needs consumers with "discretionary spending" you might want to switch now to something that will not be cut even in hard times. Farming jobs are safer than high end service jobs.
10. You might be tempted to short treasuries, or wondering why the whole world is not shorting treasuries. The value of a 30 year bond at a fixed 4% will go to near zero after we get hyperinflation, so shorting these might seem logical. But it is not. The problem is that you are putting up good money and if you win your winnings are in worthless money. I think part of why treasuries are doing so well is that shorting them no longer works.
11. When the very money that contracts and commerce depend on becomes unreliable or unusable, then self sufficiency becomes more advantageous than under normal circumstances. With inflation the prices or supply of food, water, and electricity could become crazy. In their attempts to balance the various government budgets, income taxes and sales taxes could go crazy. If things get crazy, all kinds of For Want of a Nail problems can happen in a Just In Time economy with big troubles. The more self sufficient you, or your community, can be the less such problems will impact you.
